It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
